Metoda opțiunilor reale în evaluarea afacerii
The WACC method determines the subject company's actual cost of capital by calculating the weighted average of the company's cost of debt and cost of equity. The WACC must be applied to the subject company's net cash flow to total invested capital.
De ce se evaluează valoarea afacerii? Metode de evaluare a valorii afacerii unei întreprinderi
One of the problems with this method is that the valuator may elect to calculate WACC according to the subject company's existing capital structurethe average industry capital structureor the optimal capital structure. Such discretion detracts from the objectivity of this approach, in the minds of some critics.
Indeed, since the WACC captures the risk of the subject business itself, the existing or contemplated capital structures, rather than industry averages, are the appropriate choices for business valuation.
Once the capitalization rate or discount rate is determined, it must be applied to an appropriate economic income stream: pretax cash flow, aftertax cash flow, pretax net incomeafter tax net income, excess earnings, projected cash flow, etc.
Metode dinamice de evaluare a întreprinderilor
The result of this formula is the indicated value before discounts. Before moving on to calculate discounts, however, the valuation professional must consider the indicated value under the asset and market approaches.
CECCAR REZUMAT Spre deosebire de metodele patrimoniale de evaluare a societăților, care au dezavantajul că sunt statice și orientate spre trecut, metodele dinamice de evaluare iau în considerare metoda opțiunilor reale în evaluarea afacerii mult viitorul decât prezentul și trecutul. Articolul de față își propune prezentarea acestor metode dinamice de evaluare, incluzându-le și pe cele specifice societăților cotate la bursa de valori, precum și a modelelor matematice care le caracterizează, utilizând exemple numerice. Această optică este argumentată prin faptul că, pentru o afacere în derulare, metodele de randament au o relevanță mai mare, deoarece sunt anticipative, bazându-se pe viitorul afacerii ținând cont de tendințele acesteia în domeniul strategic adică pe termen lungal profitabilității și al rentabilității. De cealaltă parte, metodele patrimoniale de evaluare sunt în primul rând utile pentru estimarea valorii unei afaceri care își încetează activitatea. Acestea sunt uneori folosite și pentru a stabili valoarea unei întreprinderi care funcționează, însă cont fiat se poate aduce ca principală critică faptul că în general se bazează pe valori istorice ale afacerii, care sunt transformate eventual în valori actuale, valabile la data evaluării.
Careful matching of the discount rate to the appropriate measure of economic income is critical to the accuracy of the business valuation results. Net cash flow is a frequent metoda opțiunilor reale în evaluarea afacerii in professionally conducted business appraisals.
The rationale behind this choice is that this earnings basis corresponds to the equity discount rate derived from the Build-Up or CAPM models: the returns obtained from investments in publicly traded companies can easily be represented in terms of net cash flows. At the same time, the discount rates are generally also derived from the public capital markets data.
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Build-Up Method[ edit ] The Build-Up Method is a widely recognized method of determining the after-tax net cash flow discount rate, which in turn yields the capitalization rate. The figures used in the Build-Up Method are derived from various sources. This method is called a "build-up" method because it is the sum of risks associated with various classes of assets.
It is based on the principle that investors would metoda opțiunilor reale în evaluarea afacerii a greater return on classes of assets that are more risky.
The first element of a Build-Up capitalization rate is the risk-free ratewhich is the rate of return for long-term government bonds. Investors who buy large-cap equity stockswhich are inherently more risky than long-term government bondsrequire a greater return, so the next element of the Build-Up method is the equity risk premium.
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In determining a company's value, the long-horizon equity risk premium is used because the Company's life is assumed to be infinite. The sum of the risk-free rate and the equity risk premium yields the long-term average market rate of return on large public company stocks.
Similarly, investors who invest in small cap stockswhich are riskier than blue-chip stocksrequire a greater return, called the " size premium. By adding the first three elements of a Build-Up discount rate, we can determine the rate of return that investors would require on their investments in small public company stocks. These three elements of the Build-Up discount rate are known collectively as the " systematic risks.
It arises from external factors and affect every type of investment in the economy. As a result, investors taking systematic risk are rewarded by an additional premium. In addition to systematic risks, the discount rate must include " unsystematic risk " representing that portion of total investment risk that can be avoided through diversification.
Public capital markets do not provide evidence of unsystematic risk since investors that fail to diversify cannot expect additional returns. Unsystematic risk falls into two categories. One of those categories is the "industry risk premium". It is also known as idiosyncratic risk and can be observed by studying the returns of a group of companies operating in the same industry sector.
Morningstar's yearbooks contain empirical data to quantify the risks associated with various industries, grouped by SIC industry code. The other category of unsystematic risk is referred to as "company specific risk.
However, as of latenew research has been able to quantify, or isolate, this risk for publicly traded stocks through the use of Total Beta calculations.
Butler and K. While it is possible to isolate the company-specific risk premium as shown above, many appraisers just key in on the total cost of equity TCOE provided by the first equation. It is similar to using the market approach in the income approach instead of adding separate and potentially redundant measures of risk in the build-up approach.
The use of total beta developed by Aswath Damodaran is a relatively new concept.